Despite the continuous increase in mortgage rates, 2022 is on pace for the second-biggest sales year ever after 2021. If we compare that to a record September 2021, September 2022 sales decreased 28.1% year-over-year, from 3,031 to 2,178 mainly because of rising mortgage rates.
Even when in this month are some headlines from different sources calling out our Miami housing changes. In this post, I want to share with you this article news. Some of these headlines are:
Let’s continue reading…
Just to mention a few of the key points from this article. All very interesting info for us to keep tracking the market. Even though those are national data, we are seeing something very similar in our local market so keep reading until the end to get the most updated information about our Miami housing market.
Single family homes closed sales decreased 30% year over year from 1,241 in 2021 to 869 in September 2022. In part this is due because of the lack of inventory but more about the rising mortgage rates. On October 20th, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.94% causing more affordability problems for some and is adversely impacting the housing market in the form of lessening demand.
As far as the single family median price increased year over year from $485,000 to $568,000 AND, increased month over month too. As you can see here, the median price for single-family homes increased from the previous month of August it was at $551,000. A 3.1% increase from August.
Moving forward with the inventory. Single-family homes inventory increased 32.3% year-over-year in September 2022 from 2,957 active listings last year to 3,912 last month for the fifth consecutive month. We are seeing a continuous trend of more inventory, slower movement, or fewer sales.
For new listings in September 2022, single-family homes decreased 15.6% year over year to 1,351 from 1,601. Here we can see an interesting point in this table how the numbers have been going down since June. Less and less new listings on the market, however, total active listings has been going up with more supply on the market as we just saw.
Month’s supply of inventory in Miami Dade for single-family homes increased 59.1% to 3.5 months year-over-year in September. Again, since we have been seeing the total active listings that have been increasing we should expect the month’s supply to increase too. It has been increasing for a while now and we should expect that to keep going into a more neutral market. This will be a gradual change as it has been happening.
the median time to contract which again, has been increasing for a while too. It now sits at 24 days increasing from 21 days in August. Additionally, the median percent of the original list price received decreased to 96.6% from 97.7% in August. We are definitely seeing a gradual change in our Miami market with properties taking longer to sell and for less, even with higher interest rates causing more problems to the buyers.
Miami’s existing condo sales decreased 26.9% year-over-year, from 1,790 in September 2021 to 1,309 in September 2022.
Miami’s existing condo sales decreased 26.9% year-over-year, from 1,790 in September 2021 to 1,309 in September 2022. The median sales price for condos increased 19.7% year-over-year, from $330,000 to $395,000. And hey, it also increased month over month. It increased 5.3% from August with $375,000. Same as single-family homes. These increases are very interesting since the interest rates have been going up for a while. However, it looks like the demand was strong enough for the low supply. Do you expect that the median prices for both single-family and condo/townhomes will increase next month? I will definitely keep an eye on it.
The median time to contract in September increased to 28 days from the previous month. And months’ supply of inventory for condos increased to 3.5 months from 3.4 the previous month.
Ok so we can agree that there are more active listings on the market but not much of new listings actually coming. We agree that properties are taking longer to sell and for less money (and I have to say here that the price sold could really depend on how realistic the seller is with the current market conditions). However, the median prices for both markets single family, condo and townhomes increased even though the interest rates have been increasing for a couple of months now and one reason behind that is that not many new listings are actually coming to the market.
We are seeing how the housing market is cooling in response to the dramatic rise in mortgage rates, we should expect that home price appreciation will be cooling as well. According to the five experts in the housing industry, this graph shows their 2023 forecasts.
Blue bars represent experts calling for ongoing home price appreciation while red bars represent experts calling for home price depreciation. Of course, we can’t see a clear consensus here but at least we can guide ourselves with the national average. According to this, we should expect home price appreciation to be fairly flat next year. So this keeps changing as the experts are monitoring the housing trends. We need to also keep in mind that all markets are different and the conditions could also be different.
I would like to bring the next quote from an economist from Realtor.com
“There is no doubt that the increasing mortgage rate will make home buying even more challenging, … buyers may still find opportunities, as these changes coincide with the time of the year when buyers have historically found the best market conditions to obtain more bargaining power.”
In other words, if you are wondering if today is a good time to buy, then the answer will depend on you. Maybe you have finally found the right time for you and that’s good for you. So the market will continue to move, buyers will continue to buy at their best time but of course not at the same rate we saw in the last two years. And of course, we are at an inflection point where the market is changing the other way around. The supply and demand have changed compared to last year.
We must definitely keep an eye on our local Miami stats to see how it is acting and for that, I’ll continue doing these housing updates for you to keep you informed. So far, the Miami real estate’s market is still strong despite the high rates and low inventory but with a lot of changes of course.
As always, if you would like to download the full report provided by the Miami Realtors I’ve posted a link down in the description below for you to get it.
To see the full report for Single Family Homes click here
To see the full report for Townhouses and Condos click here
If you are thinking about buying or selling in Miami, CLICK HERE or you can call me at 786-376-2398.
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