The new Miami data is out and it is showing a lot of decreases in our Miami area. We have been waiting for the changes in our area, where I know as a fact that other areas have already seen big changes earlier than us.
Even though the Miami sales remain higher than before 2020, in August 2022 total home sales decreased 24.1% year over year. Let’s break down this into single family homes and condo data.
Single family homes sales decreased 21.2% year over year from 1,309 in 2021 to 1,032 in August 2022. Of course we need to keep in mind that this is due in part because of the lack of inventory (that we are going to talk in a bit) and the rising mortgage rates. We know that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fluctuated from 2.93% to 6.29% last week and in the last 52 weeks causing affordability problems and less buyers demand.
As far as the single family median price increased year over year from $500,500 to $551,250. However, it decreases month over month. Since we are in a shifting market we should pay more attention to the month-over-month data to see what is trending in our local market. For example, below is a graph showing only the median price for single-family homes and the previous month July, it was at $570,000 coming from $579,000 in June.
A continuous 1.6% decrease from June to July and a 3.3% decrease from July to August. Undoubtedly interesting for our market. In fact, June was the last month that we saw a continuous increase for months, then started the trend of decreasing. I wonder what we would see in the next market update.
Moving forward with the inventory. Single family homes inventory increased 26% year-over-year in August 2022 from 3,025 active listings last year to 3,813 last month. This number tells us that properties are taking longer to sell compared to last year. This is also due to less buyer’s demand, sellers having unrealistic expectations and outdated market data but also the increase in mortgage rates.
For new listings in August 2022, single-family homes decreased 7.2% year over year to 1,573 from 1,695.
However, month’s supply of inventory in Miami Dade for single-family homes increased 43.5% to 3.3 months year-over-year in August.
Take a look at the below graph showing the trends of our Miami housing market. It has been increasing for a while now and will continue to increase. Still a sellers’ market, but that will eventually change to more of a neutral market. All these changes will happen gradually, so it will take a while. Keep in mind that a neutral market is more between 5 to 7 months of housing supply.
Here are other indicators of our shifting market: the median time to contract and the median percent of original list price received. The median time to contract increased to 21 days from 17 days in July and the median percent of original list price received decreased to 97.7% from 99% in July. What does this all mean? All of this is proving to sellers that you need to readjust your strategies. Properties are taking longer to go under contract and also, we are seeing offers at the asking price (if the property is well priced according to the recently sold properties) or below the asking price (for those thinking that still can get crazy numbers for their properties).
Miami’s existing condo sales decreased 26% year-over-year, from 1,990 in August 2021 to 1,473 in August 2022.
The median sales price for condos increased 11.9% year-over-year, from $335,000 to $375,000. However, it decreased 1.3% from July with $380,000 for the third time in a row. Same as single-family homes, take a look at the below graph, since May we have seen the same trends for condos of median prices going down.
The median time to contract in August increased to 23 days from the previous month.
Months’ supply of inventory for condos increased to 3.4 months from 3.3 the previous month. This, like single family homes, also has been increasing since April of this year. A lot of changes in both the single family houses market and in the condo and townhomes market too.
We are definitely dealing with an economic uncertainty.
What we have or what we are seeing? Definitely, a shifting Miami market.
But let’s talk first from the nation perspective, the active inventory is increasing dramatically. Take a look here how it has been from the beginning of the year.
Now, in the below graph is showing how the buyers demand have decreased considerably by less property showings. It is actually below what we were last year. With this we are seeing that we are at an inflection point.
With the below graph, is the ratio of supply and demand in the month of July. This has changed very quickly. In July, showings were nearly 17% decrease and active listings above 26%. A year ago, the numbers were the opposite. Showings were through the roof and so little listings.
Now, I wanted to compare the national data with our local data as much as I could. In the below graph you can see the showings percentage being at 29.8% decrease in FL in July 2022 and 26.2% decrease in average in August 2022. Unfortunately, for showings, we only have the state data. Then we have the FL active inventory in July which was 44.1% and 47.4% in Aug. After that, we can see the Miami Dade County active inventory data which I mentioned earlier in this blog with -12.7% in July and -10.4% in August.
So yes, national and local data confirms that we are indeed at an inflection point.
Definitely, a shifting Miami market.
I want you to understand that even though we are seeing less showings and more inventory coming to the market in Miami, house appreciation is still very high and properties will continue to appreciate. The average home price forecast for this year according to the major experts is 11.3% appreciation. So yes, the median prices will continue to appreciate, but at a slower pace with time.
Stop listening to poison news and headlines, and start listening to who shows you data.
As always, if you would like to download the full report provided by the Miami Realtors I’ve posted a link down in the description below for you to get it.
To see the full report for Single Family Homes click here
To see the full report for Townhouses and Condos click here
If you are thinking about buying or selling in Miami, CLICK HERE or you can call me at 786-376-2398.
To know a little more about this wonderful city or about the market update, I invite you to subscribe to my weekly recap NEWSLETTER. Every week I publish interesting information about Miami, FL and other things that will be very useful for you.
Subscribe to my YouTube Channel: SUBSCRIBE!
Your Favorite Real Estate Agent in Miami
Home Miami Realtors